Stanley McChrystal’s war path on White House

• Stanley McChrystal — the Runaway General
• Excerpts from the Rolling Stone interview with General Stanley McChrystal
• The White House must decide whether stability in the war effort outweighs the need to discipline the commander.
• As President Obama weighs whether to relieve his Afghanistan commander over inappropriate comments in a magazine article, he is also wrestling with the future of a war that he has taken on as his own.
• If he fires Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, Obama will be forced to consider revising his strategy, which relies on large numbers of U.S. troops and a far-reaching counterinsurgency effort to promote governance and development in Afghanistan.
• The White House now has to decide whether stability at the top of the war effort outweighs the need to discipline a commander who twice has seemed to publicly challenge civilian oversight of the war.

The article in this week’s Rolling Stone depicted Gen Stanley McChrystal – the top US military commander in Afghanistan – as a lone wolf on the outs with many important figures in the Obama administration and unable to persuade even some of his own soldiers that his strategy could win the war.

The interview describes McChrystal as “disappointed” in his first Oval Office meeting with President Barack Obama. The article says that although McChrystal voted for Obama, the two failed to connect from the start. “McChrystal thought Obama looked ‘uncomfortable and intimidated’ by the roomful of military brass,” said the magazine about the general’s first meeting with his new commander-in-chief, a week after the latter took office.

McChrystal’s one-on-one meeting with the president a few months later did not go much better either. “It was a 10-minute photo-op,” the magazine quotes an adviser to McChrystal. “The Boss was pretty disappointed,” the aide had said, referring to the general.

The Rolling Stone article, which quotes several McChrystal aides anonymously, portrays a split between the US military and Obama’s advisers at an extremely sensitive moment for the Pentagon, which is fending off criticism of its strategy to turn around the Afghanistan war.

• Firing McChrystal would also probably ignite fierce debate in Congress, with some Republicans charging that Obama had sacrificed an effective wartime commander because of comments that, while intemperate, did not challenge the course set by civilians.
• Opponents in Congress of the current strategy would probably respond by pressing even harder for a shift in strategy.
• In December, Obama essentially sided with McChrystal, who recommended a troop buildup and a dedicated counterinsurgency effort in Afghanistan.
• And he rebuffed, at least for the moment, Vice President Joe Biden and other advisors, who expressed skepticism about the strategy.
• Obama set a July 2011 deadline for beginning a troop drawdown in Afghanistan and promised to review the strategy in December — in effect giving McChrystal a year to show results.
• McChrystal’s approach already has been under fire, because stabilization efforts have proved less successful than expected in Helmand province and the general has extended an operation around the city of Kandahar because of delays in getting Afghan support.
• Officials who back the current strategy say that firing McChrystal would set back that effort even further.

Obama appointed McChrystal to lead the Afghan effort in May 2009. He was, however, not happy with the proposals the general was making – calling, among other things, for another 40,000 troops – to avoid a ‘mission failure’, writes the magazine.

“The White House was furious. McChrystal, they felt, was trying to bully Obama, opening him up to charges of being weak on national security unless he did what the general wanted. It was Obama versus the Pentagon, and the Pentagon was determined to kick the president’s ass,” states the Rolling Stone piece.

“I found that time painful,” McChrystal said in the article. “I was selling an un-sellable position,” he added.

Obama agreed to dispatch an additional 30,000 US troops to Afghanistan only after months of study, which many in the military found frustrating. And the White House’s troop commitment was coupled with a pledge to begin bringing them home in July 2011, in what counter-insurgency strategists advising McChrystal regarded as an arbitrary deadline.

A diplomatic incoherence among several officials in the Obama administration dealing with the war in Afghanistan, opines the magazine, has effectively allowed McChrystal’s team to call the shots and “hampered efforts to build a stable and credible government in Afghanistan”.

The magazine goes on, “part of the problem is personal: In private, Team McChrystal likes to talk shit about many of Obama’s top people on the diplomatic side. One aide calls Jim Jones, a retired four-star general and veteran of the Cold War, a ‘clown’ who remains ‘stuck in 1985′.”

“Politicians like [John] McCain and [John] Kerry, says another aide, ‘turn up, have a meeting with Karzai, criticise him at the airport press conference, then get back for the Sunday talk shows. Frankly, it’s not very helpful,” quotes the magazine.

Only US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton receives good reviews from McChrystals advisers. “Hillary had Stan’s back during the strategic review,” an adviser tells Rolling Stone, adding, “She said, ‘If Stan wants it, give him what he needs’.”

The assessment of McChrystal’s team of Richard Holbrooke, the US special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the official charged with the reintegration of the Taliban is not nearly as rosy: “‘The Boss says he’s like a wounded animal’,” the magazine quotes a member of the general’s team. “‘Holbrooke keeps hearing rumors that he’s going to get fired, so that makes him dangerous. He’s a brilliant guy, but he just comes in, [and] pulls on a lever, whatever he can grasp onto’,” quotes the magazine.

McChrystal, says the magazine, does not bother concealing his annoyance over the diplomat. “At one point during a trip to Paris, he checks his BlackBerry. ‘Oh, not another e-mail from Holbrooke’, he groans. ‘I don’t even want to open it’, he says. He clicks on the message and reads the salutation out loud, then stuffs the BlackBerry back in his pocket.”

McChrystal, a widely respected former special operations chief, has enjoyed mostly sympathetic US media coverage since he took over the NATO-led force last year with a mandate from Obama to launch a major counter-insurgency offensive.

In the interview, McChrystal said he felt betrayed by US Ambassador Karl Eikenberry, the man the White House chose to be his diplomatic partner. If Eikenberry had the same doubts, McChrystal said he never expressed them until a leaked internal document threw a wild card into the debate over whether to add more troops last November. In the document, Eikenberry said Afghan President Hamid Karzai was not a reliable partner for the counter-insurgency strategy McChrystal was hired to execute.

McChrystal accused the ambassador of giving himself cover.

“‘Here’s one that covers his flank for the history books’,” McChrystal told the magazine, adding, “‘Now, if we fail, they can say ‘I told you so’.”

• The most logical successor would be Lt. Gen. David Rodriguez, who is already in Afghanistan serving as McChrystal’s deputy. Replacing McChrystal with Rodriguez would signal continuity, rather than a shift in approach.
• Another name being mentioned as a possible successor was Marine Gen. James N. Mattis, commander of the U.S. Joint Forces Command in Norfolk, Va. He has command combat experience in Afghanistan and Iraq.
• Even if he remains the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, McChrystal is almost certain to emerge from the furor as a damaged figure, less able to defend his war strategy against those in the administration hoping to change it.
• “I strongly believe McChrystal will return, but the damage is done,” said a senior military official sympathetic to McChrystal.
• Among the issues Obama will have to decide is whether McChrystal can remain effective as commander in the wake of the furor.
• “Does he come back weakened or gun shy or hesitant to make that case?” asked one senior official. “We need him engaged.”

The article depicts the strained relationship between McChrystal and Eikenberry. “According to those close to the two men, Eikenberry – a retired three-star general who served in Afghanistan in 2002 and 2005 – can’t stand that his former subordinate is now calling the shots. He’s also furious that McChrystal, backed by NATO’s allies, refused to put Eikenberry in the pivotal role of viceroy in Afghanistan, which would have made him the diplomatic equivalent of the general.”

The job instead went to British ambassador Mark Sedwill – a move that effectively increased McChrystal’s influence over diplomacy by shutting out a powerful rival.

“‘In reality, that position needs to be filled by an American for it to have weight’,” the magazine quotes a US official familiar with the negotiations.

The Rolling Stone article appeared to catch him and his staff in unguarded moments, including a drinking session at an Irish pub in Paris.

In the article, McChrystal joked sarcastically about rehearsing an answer for US Vice-president Joe Biden, known as a sceptic of the general’s strategy of hurling thousands more troops into the fray.

“‘Are you asking about Vice President Biden?’ McChrystal says with a laugh.

‘Who’s that?’” the article quotes him as saying. “‘Biden?’ suggests a top adviser. ‘Did you say: Bite Me?’”

Obama’s troop surge in Afghanistan – the brainchild of McChrystal – will see NATO and US numbers peak at 150,000 later this year before a draw-down scheduled to start next year.

China’s Positive Ratings dip 9% in India, Remain High in Pakistan

BEIJING: China’s positive ratings in India have dipped with a new opinion poll showing 34 per cent of Indians view it favourably compared to 43 per cent in an earlier survey, but 85 per cent of Pakistanis rated it as a friendly nation.

The survey, conducted by US-based Pew Research Centre to gauge the world wide perspectives about China, showed that 52 per cent Indians viewed China unfavourably while 34 per cent gave it a favourable rating.

The new polls showed a nine per cent dip in the favourable rating enjoyed by China in India as an earlier survey conducted by Chinese firm Horizan research consultancy group between 2000 and 2009 showed that 43 per cent Indians considered China as a partner and 23 per cent regarded it as hostile.

Results of the PEW survey published in the state-run China Daily here showed an interesting pattern with Beijing receiving its best ratings in Kenya where 86 per cent viewed it favourably compared to 10 per cent negatively.

According to the survey conducted in 22 nations from April 7 to May 8 this year, China understandably enjoyed high positive rating of 85 per cent in Pakistan. Only three per cent of Pakistanis interviewed gave unfavourable rating to China, projected as all-weather friend.

The rising Asian power, however, received mixed ratings across the world. Thirty six per cent viewed China unfavourably in United States against 49 per cent, 46 per cent regarded it positively in Britain against 35 per cent, 41 per cent against 59 in France.

China received good ratings in Russia too where 60 per cent viewed it favourably compared to 29 per cent negative perceptions.

Among the countries where China was viewed mostly negatively was Japan which has historic disputes with China. Sixty nine per cent Japanese viewed China unfavourably compared to 26 per cent otherwise.

In Germany, 61 per cent viewed China negatively compared to 30 per cent and 61 per cent view Beijing negatively compared to 20 per cent in Turkey.

Former US secretary of state Madeleine Albright, who co-chaired the Pew global attitudes project, noted at a Washington news conference on Thursday that China is regarded highly as a result of the country’s fast economic growth. “Their star is clearly rising,” she said.

In addition to China’s economic growth rate, Albright attributed the trend to the increased willingness of the Chinese side to “be a part of the solution to global issues”, which include the world economic crisis, Korean Peninsula denuclearisation and the Iran nuclear issue.

“A lot more people now know about China and have been to China,” she said, citing the Beijing Olympic Games and Shanghai Expo as examples of China’s improved “visibility” on the global stage, which promotes a better understanding of the country.

A Beijing-based international analyst Pang Zhongyin said the result of the poll is nothing new and Beijing still needs to step up efforts to strengthen communication with the world.

Being the “factory of the world”, China has contributed a lot to the world economy and its influence has kept growing, especially after the global financial crisis, Pang said.

“And such emerging economic power is unfortunately accompanied by misgivings from other countries and we need to convince the world that China is not what they imagine,” he said.

Pang emphasised the importance of public diplomacy, saying the Chinese government, from the top leader to the ordinary diplomat, has gradually taken the idea in mind.

He noted that Premier Wen Jiabao’s recent interactions with local people during his visit to the Republic of Korea and Japan is a good example of extending the message that China is not a threat.

Turkish flags in Palestine and Egypt: A new beginning

Turkish flags in Cairo and Gaza, and Palestinian flags in Istanbul and Ankara—things have come a full circle in about half a century. Turks and Palestinians are bound in blood, and the machinations of Lawrence of Arabia and the secularism of Kamal Pasha are now being overrun by events off the coast of Gaza City.

Iran was the most popular country in Palestine. President Ahmedinijad’s principled stand on Palestine has touched the hearts of Palestinians. Now another flag has fast becoming very popular in Palestine and Egypt—it is the red flag emblazoned with the white Crescent Star. The original Egyptian flag was a modified Turkish flag similar to the current Pakistani flag. The Egyptian flag was changed by Gamal Abdul Nasser and is today a non-descript tri-color with the Egyptian bird on it.

Blood is thicker than water, and after trying to disassociate itself from it former province, the Turks have once again come to the realization that Palestine lives in the heart of Turks and Turks live in the hearts of Arabs.

The flotilla trying to barge the Israeli embargo didn’t just happen. It materialized because of the hard work of Gul and Erdzogan. While 20 people were brutally murdered by the henchmen of Natenyahu, the ships were able to punch a hole in the brutal incarceration. While a new Irish ship sails with humanitarian supplies to the biggest jail in the world—Cairo is exploding with protest.

Turkey’s exponentially increasing diplomatic clout is definitely due to the opportunity of its location – for centuries a crossroads of trade routes between East and West, and for hundreds of years a symbiosis of Europe and Asia, for millennia an overlap of the Middle East and Central Asia—an extravaganza for people, ideas, trade, and now energy routes.

After decades of unbridled expanding economic growth, Turkey is being described the “new tiger of Europe. It underscores a sense of dynamism and confidence…. They are looking beyond the region.” Hampson

President Abdullah Gul traveled to Pakistan with billions of Dollars in cash, and set up plans to link up Islamabad to Istanbul by rail via Tehran. On a seminal voyage to Cameroon and Congo, he again took with him an entourage of some over a hundred businessmen increasing trade from $1.5 billion in 2001 to more than $10 billion last year.

Turkish Israeli relations are at an all time low. Defense relations are at a breaking point and economic relations are not improving.

In 1948 Turkey was the first country to recognize Israel, mostly as a reaction to the events of  1916-1922 at the demise of the Ottoman empire. 500,000 Arab soldiers had defected from the Ottoman Armies and sided with the revolt initiated by the British agent T. E. Lawrence “Lawrence of Arabia” circa 1916-1918.

The last Caliphs of the Ottomans had been offered a large sum of money and chance to continue this caliphate if they sold a Palestine to the Jews. The Caliphs refused and suffered the consequences.

The Ottoman Empire was broken up in 1918 and its parts parsed out to the European powers. Romanian, Bulgarian, Albanian, Bosnian, Serbian were thrown to the wolves and suffered unimaginable atrocities at the hands of their enemies. They faced the worst type of ethnic cleansing in the Caucus–Chechnya, Tartaristan, and Dagistan which are now Russian autonomous republics have faced genocide since the Red October revolution of 1917. Stalin murdered 10 million Muslims and forcibly deported all the fierce Tartars to Siberia. Most died, but some found their way back. The Central Asian provinces of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan were handed over to the Soviets who tried to eliminate Islam fro these states.

After the Ottoman defeat The Turks went through a civil war. Some wanted to keep the Caliphate, others wanted to become part of Europe. Kemal Pasha’s forces supported by the European powers overpowered the popular Anwar Pasha who wanted to keep the Ottoman Caliphate. At the time the Europeans had promised Turkey that they would become part of Europe. However stirred of all her European possessions, Turkey has a rump presence in Europe.

Egypt – Tens of thousands of people across Egypt protested against Israel’s Gaza blockade on Friday, chanting pro-Hamas slogans in a sign of mounting rancour in the first Arab country to make peace with the Jewish state.

About 20,000 protesters gathered in the port city of Alexandria, waving Egyptian, Turkish and Palestinian flags in response to Israel’s raid on an aid ship bound for Gaza.

The protest, organized by Egypt’s most powerful opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, was unusual in a country where public demonstrations are often swiftly suppressed.

“Hamas, Hamas, you are the artillery and we are the bullets,” the protestors chanted, urging the Islamist group which rules Gaza to confront Israel.

About 10,000 people took part in a separate demonstration organized by the Brotherhood in Fayoum, a city south of Cairo, one of the rally’s planners said. A protest in the northern Sinai peninsula city of el-Arish drew hundreds more. Reuters.

The impotence of the pretenders in Cairo have been shamed by the common man into lifting the inhuman isolation of Gaza. Egyptian are up in arms and hopeful of the future, not because of Hasni Mubarak and his cabal—but because of the progeny of the Ottomans who still think of them as brothers. Palestinians now wish that the Ottoman Empire had been there to protect them from the ravages of the British Mandate, and the half a century of Israeli occupation.

The protestors carrying Turkish flags told the world that they prefer resolute rulers of Turkey to spineless corrupt presidents of Egypt.

• Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters in Santiago, Chile, that his government was demanding the NATO council gather to address a crisis that has already seen Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu cut short a visit to Canada and Washington where he had been due to meet with US President Barack Obama on Tuesday.

• Appathurai said in a statement that the military alliance is “deeply concerned about the loss of life” in international waters, with at least nine people — many Turks according to reports — killed and dozens more reported wounded.

• “NATO does not really have instruments with which to deal with the follow-up from this type of affair,” said a diplomat.

• “Turkey has not invoked article five which envisages all allies coming to the aid of a member country that is the victim of an attack.

• “But, given that numerous Turkish citizens appear to figure among the casualties, it is understandable that (Ankara) triggers political dialogue with its partners,” the diplomat added.

Israel sparked global outrage when its military killed nine Turkish activists during the Monday raid. Relations with Turkey have plunged to their lowest ebb since the two countries forged a strategic relationship in the 1990s.

Turkey‘s diplomatic confrontation with the Jewish state has since boosted its popularity among Arabs who long to see their own governments show similar resolve.

“Turkey, a thousand salutations. Long live Erdogan and long live the Turkish people,” the protestors chanted in Alexandria, referring to the Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.

This week Egypt, which made peace with Israel in 1979, opened its Rafah border to allow aid convoys into the coastal strip — a move widely seen as an attempt to deflect criticism of its role in the blockade.

Cairo, coordinating with Israel, has allowed only limited crossing of the border since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007.

A permanent opening would be a boost for Islamist Hamas, which shares roots with Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, and a blow to efforts by Israel and its Western allies to cripple them.

The Brotherhood is officially banned but tolerated by the Egyptian government. Its members, running as independents, hold a fifth of seats in the lower house of Egypt’s parliament. Reuters. (Additional reporting by Yusri Mohamed in el-Arish; Writing by Alexander Dziadosz in Cairo; Editing by Elizabeth Fullerton)

For a century the Turks were lured with the promise of Europe. Now, for the past decade the Turks know that the ephemeral illusion of Europe was simply a mirage. Turkey has now turned its attention to the East and is looking at building relations with the Turkic states with which it shares linguistic, ethnic and religious ties.

Another impetus might be Turkey’s repeatedly rebuffed attempts to join the European Union, says Fen Osler Hampson, an international affairs specialist at Carleton University in Ottawa. “It’s a way to show the public there are other things this government can do to stand tall,” says Mr. Hampson.

The decline of Ankara’s relations with Tel Aviv are linked to the revival of Turkish nationalism. Muslims all over the world have been waiting for the Turks to lead the Muslims and revive their past glory. The flotilla is but a beginning. Pakistan has educated about 30% to 40% of Palestinians, and the Pakistanis have protested against Israeli aggression. “Aik he suff main kharay ho gayeh Mahmud aur Ayaz”.

“Neel keh sahil seh ta ba khak e Kashgar—aik ho muslim haram kee pasabni keh leyeh”