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Kyrgyzstan turmoil: Only the ECO can save Central Asia


Kyrgyzstan turmoil: Only the ECO can save Central Asia

News reports from Kabar the Kyrgyz news agency are announcing that the opposition has declared an alternate government announced on the seized TV stations. An emergency has been declared. Opposition leaders are reporting a 100 dead and 400 injured.

The war in Afghanistan is spreading to the Central Asian Republics–namely Kyrgyzstan and also Uzbekistan. The news from the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek is not good.

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  • “Large-scale protests appear to have overthrown the government of Kyrgyzstan, an important American ally in Central Asia,” The New York Times is reporting.
  • Russia’s RT news agency writes that Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev “has fled” the capital, Bishkek.
  • Reuters reports that “the Kyrgyz government agreed on Wednesday to resign and President Kurmanbek Bakiyev flew to the southern city of Osh,” according to a senior opposition party official.
  • 100 dead and as many as 400 injured. This is not a riot–its a revolution in the making.

CNN is reporting that:

The fighting erupted amid political unrest between opposition forces and the government in the cities of Bishkek, Talas and Naryn. Russian state media reported that the Bishkek unrest was triggered by clashes that took place in Talas where some opposition leaders were arrested.

Protesters want detained opposition leaders to be released, and Interfax is reporting that opposition supporters have seized control of Naryn, Talas and others towns, such as Tokmok, Karakol and Cholpanata.

Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev sent a decree to parliament for the imposition of a curfew as demonstrators clashed with police in Bishkek.

The rioters stormed the parliament building under the leadership of the opposition leader Omar Tekab (Russianized into Omurbek Tekebayev). Russian News (rian.ru) agencies are reporting that Kyrgyz “authorities have imposed a state of emergency in Bishkek and Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has signed a decree imposing a curfew as clashes continue between rioters and police in the capital. At least 21 died with over 140 injured in riots.” The Christian Science Monitor is reporting that “The Kyrgyzstan protests also took place in other cities”. Reuters reports that “Taimur Sariy [Russianized name Temir Sariyev]Temir Sariyev, an opposition party leader, told The Associated Press that a coalition of politicians had agreed on a new prime minister as well as a new interior minister and new security chief. Officials say 40 people have been killed and more than 400 wounded Wednesday in clashes with police trying to quell the anti-government uprising.”

This has serious implications for China, Russia and the region. The SCO was created to assist the Central Asian Republics to maintain their status quo–however the ISAF presence and the NATO supply routes through Kyrgyzstan have brought the war to Kyrgyzstan.

The US base brought the war to Kyrgyzstan.

America relies on Manas Air Base (renamed the “Transit Center at Manas” as 2009) an alternate NATO supply route to Afghanistan. Therefore the US will be all over Bishkek. The Kyrgyz people and the Bakiyev’s parliament voted to throw out the base in 2009–and it remains a demand of the Kyrgyz people–and a bone of contention. Kyrgyztanis see growing Anti-Americanism because of the base.

The alignment of land locked countries to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea will help the Central Asian Republics open up to the world. Dedicated freeways from Dushame and Fergana are being built to Gwader and Port Qasim with the help of the Russians and the Chinese. This economic integration and the SCO block is the future of Central Asia.

We predicted that the Afghan war would move Westward and Northwards. This has not just happened now–it has been happening for years.

Graveyard of Empires: AfPak-TurkTaj-UzbKaz-AzKyr -istan

For years we have shed light on the pull and push theory. Can the $80 Billion Think Tank industry not comprehend the simple truths described by Peter Senge in his seminal book “The 5th Discipline“. They theory goes as follows. When the Police cracks down on drug dealers on 42nd street, the drug dealing does not disappear, it simply moved to 52nd street or gets dispersed over a bigger area out of reach of the police raids. Similarly when the US bombs the insurgents in East Afghanistan, it is but obvious that they will find shelter and hideouts on the Duran Line and beyond. As the US drones bomb FATA, areas in Pakistan are affected destabilizing parts of the NWFP.

The conflict was broadly fought between government forces and the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) – a coalition of Islamists and secular reformists. Al Jazeera

We strongly believe in the Push Theory is in action. In this case, the fear is that because of the actions of the Pakistan Army in Swat, some of the Uzbek militants belonging to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) may have moved back to the Tajikistan and Uzbekistan where they have been active for more than a decade.

The Taliban won the war against the USSR by cutting off their supplies from the same routes that the US will use. The Taliban attacked the supplies coming via Pakistan. According to Russian estimates only about half the supplies made it to Afghanistan. Now the raids on the supplies may be moving to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

The Christian Science Monitor reports:

Mr. Bakiyev took power in the so-called “Tulip Revolution” of 2005, raising hope for democratic reform. But, as the International Crisis Group put in in 2008, “instead of opening up politics Bakiyev… is creating a system whose hallmarks are overweening control by the ruling family, widespread corruption and, most significantly, a monopoly over economic and political patronage.”

The 2009 US State Department Human Rights report, released this March, listed a litany of abuses by Bakiyev’s government:

Mr. Bakiyev faces a real problem–which could become a horrendous issue for the US. The failed policies of the Bush Administration are fast making Kyrgyzstan another Afghanistan. Unless the US learns from its mistakes from Afghanistan, many Americans will have to learn names of cities that they don’t even want to know about–Bishkek, Namamgan, Tashkent, Andijon. Unless sagacious and sane policies are implemented in the region these names will become household names like Falujah, Helmand, and Mazar e Sharif.

The world does not want to learn new names with atrocities and violence tied to them.

As it is the governments in the Central Asian republics face an onslaught of attacks from the disenfranchised and poor populations. The IMU is a major factor in trying to overthrow dictatorial regimes in the capitals of the Central Asian Republics.

There is another way–economic development and regional groupings to facilitate progress and prosperity in Central Asia.

(Reuters) – Kyrgyz riot police fired tear gas and flash grenades to disperse protesters in the capital Bishkek on Wednesday, witnesses said, the second day of unrest linked to mounting public anger over a weaker economy and corruption.

The Economic Cooperation Organization

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