Beijing’s Missile in Tibet, & Hainan Naval base scare Delhi: Dramatic rise in India-China tensions

By: Moin Ansari | RupeeNews

The Chinese Red dragon’s reach has scared the pants off the Indian elephant. Many have predicted a war between India and China within the next few years. Some called that prediction alarmist. First there were repeated statements from Delhi that China was their biggest enemy and threat. Then news stories that China has built a huge infrastructure on the undefined and undemarcated Mcmohan line (the de factor border between India and China). Now the escalating tensions are sounding alarm bells around the world. The Federation of American Scientist has just published pictures of Chinese missiles which can target all of India. The incompetent intelligence agencies of India didn’t have a clue about the missiles. Any high school drop out could have paid a a commercial satellite a nickel and gotten the pictures of the satellites. The fact that the FAS pictures has so unnerved Delhi that it has decided to form to new intelligence agencies is a subject of much discussion around the world

Analysis of new commercial satellite photos has identified an extensive deployment area with nearly 60 launch pads for medium-range nuclear ballistic missiles in Central China near Delingha and Da Qaidam.

The region has long been rumored to house nuclear missiles and I have previously described some of the facilities in a report and a blog. But the new analysis reveals a significantly larger deployment area than previously known, different types of launch pads, command and control facilities, and missile deployment equipment at a large facility in downtown Delingha.

The U.S. government often highlights China’s deployment of new mobile missiles as a concern but keeps the details secret, so the discovery of the deployment area provides the first opportunity for the public to better understand how China operates its mobile ballistic missiles. FAS Security

The Peoples Republic of China possesses one of the largest land-based missile forces on the planet. The Chinese plan never aimed for ICMB parity with the US or Russia the  rapid growth of a modern 2nd Artillery Corps has created a very potent deterrent force for Beijing. China’s missiles are capable of inundating the region surrounding China with  thousands, of conventional and nuclear armed missiles. The Peoples Liberation Army’s 2nd Artillery Corps is now recognized as one of the most devastating military branches found in any military worldwide.

NEW DELHI: Stung by China’s aggressive posturing, including its deployment of missiles in Delingha near Tibet, and other increasingly hostile activities in India’s neighbourhood, the Cabinet Committee on Security is considering a proposal to set up separate centres for nuclear or missile intelligence and maritime security. In fact, with strong backing by National Security Advisor M K Narayanan, the CCS, which is still smarting under the Chinese `aggression’, is all set to give the go-ahead to the proposal.

From Delingha the DF-21 is in range of northern India and three Russian ICBM fields and a bomber base. Photo Courtesy: FAS

The inability of central intelligence agencies like RAW, DIA and IB in keeping a tab on recent deployment of intermediate range missiles like DF-4 and reports that Beijing might station ICBMs in the Delingha region seem to have alarmed authorities into action. The medium-range ballistic missiles which are already deployed in Delingha can hit targets that are almost 3,000 kilometres away. China has also built several launch pads for nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles in the same region.

“The entire northern India and parts of central India can be hit from there. The way these missiles have been deployed, they can only hit four countries — Nepal, Pakistan, Myanmar and India. And because the other three countries are not potential adversaries of China, there is obviously deep concern here about China’s intentions and you can say that this is one way of addressing this concern,” said a source, adding that the separate centres for missile and maritime intelligence will initially comprise officers from central intelligence agencies. Till now, the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) has worked as the nodal agency responsible for the functioning of all internal and external intelligence agencies.

A security official admitted that the need for separate missile intelligence centres was primarily because of China’s expanding missile development programme. The new agency will not just gather information but also analyse information available with central agencies like DIA, RAW, IB and NTRO and recommend action to counter any adverse development.

An increase in deployed DF-21 medium-range ballistic missiles is reported by the Pentagon. Commercial satellite images in 2007 indicated possible DF-21 deployment at Delingha in the northern parts of Central China.

“This agency, once it comes into being, will deal exclusively with nuclear and missile intelligence. The agencies carrying out this work now function under the JIC but the committee is not exclusively for missile and nuclear intelligence,” he added. The new agency will function directly under the National Security Council and will be accountable for all inputs from the neighbouring region on developments related to missile and nuclear technology.

This proposal was first mooted by a joint task force on intelligence headed by former JIC chief S D Pradhan. Two other members of the task force are former IB director P C Haldar and scientist Roddam Narasimha. The task force was constituted at the behest of Narayanan himself and it has submitted its report to the government.

Delingha missiles base in Tibet China

Similarly, a separate centre for maritime intelligence is also likely to be cleared by CCS. This centre will work as pivot around which all intelligence agencies involved in maritime security will function. Intel centres to keep tabs on China’s missiles, navy. Sachin Parashar, TNN 18 July 2009, 02:41am IST

The PLA’s  land-based ballistic and cruise missile force consists of 38 operational missile units spread throughout the country. The missile force is heavily oriented towards mobile short and theater range systems, with only eight facilities supporting ICBMs. This lethal mix of missiles now threatens an almost defenseless Delhi whose missiles don’t really work, and whose nuclear explosions are the subject of much doubt and debate even inside Bharat.

Two weeks after photographs of China’s nuclear submarines set alarm bells ringing for the Indian authorities, a commercial satellite has revealed a launching site for over 50 nuclear ballistic missiles, capable of striking all north Indian cities.

According to commercial satellite images analysed by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), China has significantly reorganized the launching facilities near Delingha in the northern parts of Central China, said Hans Kristensen, a researcher with FAS.

The medium-range missiles also have Russia within striking range.

“From these launch pads for DF-21 missiles, southern Russia and northern India would be within range, but not Japan, Taiwan or Guam,” Kristensen added.

The DF-21 is a medium-range ballistic missile estimated by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) to have a range of approximately 1,330 miles (2,150 kilometers). It is China’s first solid-fuel ballistic missile and believed to carry a single warhead with a yield of 200-300 kilo-tonnes.

“The US government often highlights China’s deployment of new mobile missiles as a concern but keeps the details secret, so the discovery of the deployment area provides the first opportunity for the public to better understand how China operates its mobile ballistic missiles,” Kristensen said.

The revelation has come two weeks after satellite images of the Chinese Navy’s upcoming base at Hainan Island, 1,200 nautical miles from the strategic Malacca Strait and an access route to the Indian Ocean, has set off alarm bells across the Indian establishment.

The latest images were posted along with Kristensen’s analysis on the website of the Federation of American Scientists. Kristensen said the imagery revealed missile launch sites along a 275-kilometer (170 miles) stretch of highway leading from the city of Delingha through Da Qaidam to Mahai in the northern part of Qinghai province.

Thirty-six launch pads were arrayed in three strings extending north of the highway and west of Delingha. Another 22 launch pads were detected in an area running west of Da Qaidam to Mahai, according to Kristensen’s analysis. newsx.com/story/9976. Chinese nuclear missile base has north India in sight, Fri-May 16, 2008, New Delhi / NewsX Bureau with IANS inputs

Why China will attack India

By: Daily.Pk

China will launch an attack on India before 2012.

There are multiple reasons for a desperate Beijing to teach India the final lesson, thereby ensuring Chinese supremacy in Asia in this century. The recession that shut the Chinese exports shop is creating an unprecedented internal social unrest. In turn, the vice-like grip of the communists over the society stands severely threatened.

Unemployment is on the rise. The unofficial estimate stands at a whopping fourteen percent. Worldwide recession has put thirty million people out of jobs. Economic slowdown is depleting the foreign exchange reserves. Foreign investors are slowly shifting out. To create a domestic market, the massive dole of loans to individuals is turning out to be a nightmare. There appears to be a flight of capital in billions of dollars in the shape of diamond and gold bought in Hong Kong and shipped out towards end 2008.

bharat-vermaThe fear of losing control over the Chinese masses is forcing the communists to compulsorily install filtering software on new computers on sale to crush dissent on the Internet, even though it is impossible to censor in entirety the flow of information as witnessed recently in Tibet, Xinjiang and Iran.

The growing internal unrest is making Beijing jittery.

The external picture appears to be equally dismal. The unfolding Obama strategy seems to be scoring goals for democracy and freedom without firing a single shot. While Bush unwittingly united and arrayed against himself Islamic countries and radical Islam worldwide, Obama has put radical Islam in disarray by lowering the intra-societal temperature vis-à-vis America and the Muslim world. He deftly hints at democracy in his talk without directly threatening any group or country and the youth picks it up from there – as in Iran. With more and more Chinese citizens beginning to demand political freedom, the future of the communists is also becoming uncertain. The technological means available in the 21st century to spread democracy is definitely not conducive for the totalitarian regime in Beijing.

India’s chaotic but successful democracy is an eyesore for the authoritarian regime in Beijing. Unlike India, China is handicapped as it lacks the soft power – an essential ingredient to spread influence. This further adds fuel to the fire.

mapIn addition, the growing irrelevance of Pakistan, their right hand that operates against India on their behest, is increasing the Chinese nervousness. Obama’s AF-PAK policy is primarily a PAK-AF policy. It has intelligently set the thief to catch the thief. The stated withdrawal from Iraq by America now allows it to concentrate its military surplus on the single front to successfully execute the mission. This surplus, in combination with other democratic forces, enables America to look deep into resource rich Central Asia, besides containing China’s expansionist ambitions.

To offset this adverse scenario, while overtly pretending to side with the West, the Chinese covertly ordered their other proxy, North Korea, to test underground nuclear explosions and carry out trials of missiles that threaten Japan and South Korea. The Chinese anxiety is understandable. Under Bush’s declared policy of being ‘a strategic competitor’ alongside the ‘axis of evil’, they shared a large strategic maneuverability with others of similar hues. However, Obama policies wisely deny such a luxury by reclaiming more and more international strategic space ceded by the previous administration.

highlight-1The communists in China, therefore, need a military victory to unite the disillusioned citizenry behind them. This will assist in marketing the psychological perception that the 21st century belongs to China and assert their deep belief in the superiority of the Chinese race. To retain the communist party’s hold on power, it is essential to divert attention from the brewing internal dissent. In an autocratic system normally the only recipe to unite the citizenry is by mannpulating their nationalistic feelings. The easy method for Beijing to heighten the feeling of patriotism and forging national unity is to design a war with an adversary. They believe that this will help them to midwife the Chinese century. That is the end game rooted in the abiding conviction of the communists that the Chinese race is far superior to Nazi Germany and is destined to “Lord over the Earth”.

At present, there is no overall cost benefit ratio in integrating Taiwan by force with the mainland, since under the new dispensation in Taipei, the island is ‘behaving’ itself. Also, the American presence around the region is too strong for comfort. There is also the factor of Japan to be reckoned. Though Beijing is increasing its naval presence in the South China Sea to coerce into submission those opposing its claim on the Sprately Islands, at this point of time in history it will be unwise for recession-hit China to move against the Western interests, including Japan. Therefore, the most attractive option is to attack a soft target like India and forcibly occupy its territory in the Northeast.

Ideally, the Chinese believe that the east-wind should prevail over the west-wind. However, despite their imperial calculations of the past, they lag behind the West, particularly America, by many decades. Hence, they want the east-wind to at least prevail over the other east-wind, i.e., India, to ensure their dominance over Asia. Beijing’s cleverly raising the hackles on its fabricated dispute in Arunachal Pradesh to an alarming level, is the preparatory groundwork for imposing such a conflict on India. A sinking Pakistan will team up with China to teach India “the final lesson”.

The Chinese leadership wants to rally its population behind the communist rule. As it is, Beijing is already rattled, with its proxy Pakistan, now literally embroiled in a civil war, losing its sheen against India. Above all, it is worried over the growing alliance of India with the United States and the West, because the alliance has the potential to create a technologically superior counterpoise.

All these three concerns of the Chinese communists are best addressed by waging a war against pacifist India to achieve multiple strategic objectives. But India, otherwise the biggest challenge to the supremacy of China in Asia, is least prepared on ground to face the Chinese threat.

How will India repel the Chinese game plan? Will Indian leadership be able to take the heat of war? Have they laid the groundwork adequately to defend India? Is the Indian military equipped to face the two-front war by Beijing and Islamabad? Is the Indian Civil Administration geared to meet the internal security challenges that the external actors will sponsor simultaneously through their doctrine of unrestricted warfare?

The answers is an unequivocal ‘NO’. Pacifist India is not ready by a long shot either on the internal or the external front.

It is said that long time back, a king with an excellent military machine at his disposal could not stomach the violence involved in winning wars. So he renounced war in victory. This led to the rise of the pacifist philosophies. The state either refused to defend itself or neglected the instruments that could defend it.

Any ‘extreme’ is dangerous, as it tends to create imbalance in statecraft.

highlight-2We saw that in the unjust unilateral aggression in Iraq. It diminished the American aura and recessed the economy. China’s despotic regime is another extreme, scared to permit political dissent. This will fuel an explosion worse than the Tiananmen Square. Despite the use of disproportionate force and the demographic invasion of Tibet, Beijing’s hold remains tenuous. Pakistan’s over-aggressive agenda in the name of jihad haunts it now to the point of fragmentation of the State.

Similarly, India’s pacifism is the other extreme. 26/11s will occur on a regular basis as it infects policy-making. Such extreme postures on either side invariably generate wars. Armed with an aggressive Wahabi philosophy, Pakistan, in cohort with China, wants to destabilize a pacifist India. India’s instruments of state steeped in pacifism are unable to rise to its defence.

In the past sixty years, the deep-rooted pacifism contributed to the Civil Administration, ceding control of forty per cent of the Union’s territory to the Maoists and ten percent to the insurgents, effecting a shrinking influence internally, as well in the ‘near abroad’.

India must rapidly shift out from its defeatist posture of pacifism to deter China. New Delhi’s stance should modify, not to aggression, but to a firm assertion in statecraft. The state must also exclusively retain the capability of intervention by use of force internally as well as externally. If it permits the non-state actors to develop this capability in competition, then the state will whither away. On the contrary, the state machinery should ensure a fast-paced development in the Red Corridor even it if has to hold Maoists hostage at gunpoint. The state’s firm and just intervention will dissolve the Maoist movement.

Keeping in view the imminent threat posed by China, the quickest way to swing out of pacifism to a state of assertion is by injecting military thinking in the Civil Administration to build the sinews. That will enormously increase the deliverables on ground – from Lalgarh to Tawang.

Illusion of “China’s Attack on India Before 2012″

Chinese Response, By Chen Xiaochen

The 2000 km border between China and India has been a notable absence from press headlines in the years since then-Indian PM Vajpayee’s 2003 visit to Beijing. Tensions, however, have risen again as India announced last month a plan to deploy two additional army divisions and two air force squadrons of Su-30 Fighter Unit, some 60,000 soldiers in total, in a disputed border area in the southern part of Tibet, which India claims as its state of Arunachal Pradesh.

Adding fuel to the flames is an article by Bharat Verma, editor of Indian Defense Review, predicting that China will attack India before 2012, leaving only three years to Indian government for preparation.

highlight-3According to Mr. Verma, “growing unrest in China” due in part to economic downturn will leave the Chinese government looking for something to “divert the attention of its own people from ‘unprecedented’ internal dissent, growing unemployment and financial problems.” China will also want to strike India before the latter becomes powerful, which is the reason for the 2012 “deadline.” India, with its growing affiliation with the West, is yet weak under China’s fire.

But a “China’s attack” is not going to happen, and one wonders at the basis for Mr. Verma’s thinking. First, although it is true that China’s macro-economy has taken a hit from the global financial crisis, the extent of the damage is under control. Recent statistics shows China’s economy grew 7.1% in the first half of 2009, while its foreign exchange reserve has exceeded $2 trillion. China’s stimulus plan has been effective and given people confidence. China will survive the global downturn as well or better than the rest of the world’s economies.

And even if China’s economy was really all that bad, would the government try to distract “unrest” by taking military actions against India? Mr Verma’s reasoning rests on a lack of documentation. Looking into the past 60 years, China has no record of launching a war to divert public attention from anything. Moreover, while Mr. Verma supposes the Chinese Communist Party has no cards to play other than “invading India,” the Party, widely experienced in dealing with domestic disputes, will hardly in only three years have run out of all options facing potential social instability. Moreover, even if Chinese leaders considered such an option, they would certainly be aware that an external war would severely jeopardize domestic affairs.

Other reasons the author mentions in the article are also vague. The Western powers would not take kindly to a Chinese conflict with India, leaving China rightfully reluctant to use force in any case other than extreme provocation. US forces well deployed in Afghanistan and Pakistan could check any China’s military action in South Asia. And then there is also the nuclear problem: there has never been a war between two nuclear equipped nations, and both sides would have to be extremely cautious in decision-making, giving more room for less violent solutions.

Further, it is important to realize there is no reason for China to launch a war, against India in particular. Economic development, rather than military achievement, has long been the consensus of value among China’s core leaders and citizens. Despite occasional calls to “Reoccupy South Tibet (occupied Chinese territory),” China’s decision-making is always cautious. It is not possible to see a Chinese “incursion” into India, even into Tawang, an Indian-occupied Buddhist holy land over which China argues a resolute sovereignty.

Last but not least, China’s strategy, even during the 1962 border war with India, has been mainly oriented towards the east, where Taiwan is its core interest, while the recent Xinjiang unrest highlights China’s growing anti-terrorist tasks in the northwest – both issues are more important than the southwest border. If China were to be involved in a war within the next three years, as unlikely as that seems, the adversary would hardly be India. The best option, the sole option, open for the Chinese government is to negotiate around the disputed territory.

However, there is one     scenario where there is possibility for war: an aggressive Indian policy toward China, a “New Forward Policy,” may aggravate border disputes and push China to use force – despite China’s appeal, as far as possible, for peaceful solutions.

Consider the 1959-1962 conflict, the only recorded war between China and India in the long history of their civilizations. After some slight friction with China in 1959, the Indian army implemented aggressive action known as its Forward Policy. The Chinese Army made a limited but successful counterattack in 1962.

Now, it seems “back to the future”. Mr. Verma asserts another war will happen before 2012, a half century after the last, regrettable one. India has started to deploy more troops in the border area, similar to its Forward Policy 50 years ago. Is Mr. Verma’s China-bashing merely a justification for more troops deployed along the border? Will India’s “New Forward Policy”, as the old one did 50 years ago, trigger a “2012 war?”

The answers lie mainly on the Indian side. Given China’s relatively small military garrison in Tibet, Indian’s 60,000 additional soldiers may largely break the balance. If India is as “pacific” as Mr. Verma says, and is sincere in its border negotiation, China-India friendship will remain. After all, China shares a long and mostly friendly cultural exchange with India as well as other neighbors. Now China is seeking deeper cooperation, wider coordination, and better consensus with India, especially in the global recession, and peace is a precondition for doing so. China wants to say, “We are on the same side,” as the Indian Ambassador did in a recent interview in China. Thus, “China will attack India before 2012″ is a provocative and inflammatory illusion.

Admiral Mehta: India doesn’t have capability to match China force for force

By: Rupee News

Less than a week after India and China held what they described as fruitful talks on a long-standing border dispute, China embarked on a massive war-game designed to improve its ability to dispatch troops over long distances.

Not surprisingly, some in India are concerned.

India China border dispute. SU planes Tezpur to 3200 km or 8500 km with fuel tanks

As China’s economy has grown, so has its offensive military capabilities, which has fueled something of an arms race in Asia, particularly with the region’s other emerging economic power, India.

As we reported in June, the Indian Ocean – the vital transport hub for the region’s goods and energy – will likely become a region of increasing strategic jockeying as the world’s two largest countries seek to secure their economic positions. China’s approach is dubbed the “String of Pearls” strategy by US military officials.

China and India fought a border war over their poorly demarcated boundary in the Himalayas in 1962, and China has at times since claimed sovereignty over territory that appears to be well on the western side of the border (this map shows the disputed area.)

On Tuesday, China began a series of military maneuvers that it is describing as its “largest-ever tactical military exercise.” The war games, called “Stride-2009,” will involve 50,000 troops form China’s more than 2 million-member standing army, and are designed to help China improve its “long-range force projection” by using high-speed civilian rail and civilian aircraft in rapidly moving troops, according to state news agency, Xinhua.

According to the PLA General Staff Headquarters, in charge of organizing the exercise “Stride-2009,” one army division from each of the military commands of Shenyang, Lanzhou, Jinan and Guangzhou, will participate in a series of live-fire drills lasting for two months. Unlike previous annual tactical exercises, the army divisions and their air units will be deployed in unfamiliar areas far from their garrison training bases by civilian rail and air transport.

China rails all the way to the Indian border. Pakistan Railways linked to Trans Asian Railway Network (TARN)

The exercise will have troops operating from up to 1,000 miles from their home bases. Though China is a vast country with significant internal dissent – rioting by ethnic Uighurs in Urumqi this July (and in Tibet last year) occurred more than 2,000 miles from Beijing – some neighbors fear it is intent on expansion.

The Times of India said strategists have long worried about the possibility that an expanding rail network in China could be used to “enhanc(e) China’s military superiority over neighboring India.”

On Monday, Indian Navy chief Admiral Sureesh Mehta warned in rather stark terms that China’s military is outstripping India’s, according to the Hindustan Times. It was an unusually blunt admission:

“In military terms, both conventionally and unconventionally, we can neither have the capability nor the intention to match China force for force…” He said Beijing was in the process of consolidating its comprehensive national power and creating formidable military capability. “Once that is done, China is likely to be more assertive on its claims, especially in the immediate neighbourhood,” said Mehta, who as the Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee, is the country’s senior most military commander.

Two months ago, India’s former Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi Major said China was a greater threat to India than Pakistan. India wary as China conducts biggest “long-range” war games. India’s Navy chief says his military is no match for China’s growing forces. By Dan Murphy | Staff writer 08.11.09. CS Monistor

Bangladesh map: Siliguri corridor is vulnerable to an expanding China map

“What the navy chief has projected is that our military asymmetry to China is similar to our asymmetry vis-a-vis our economies. Instead of matching China force by force we should harness technology more innovatively. It is not alarmist at all but a prudent suggestion that money allocated is spent and spent wisely,” National Maritime Foundation director Commodore (retd.) C. Uday Bhaskar said.

Terming China one of India’s primary challenges, Mehta said at a lecture Monday that “it would be foolhardy to compare India and China as equals”.

“Whether in terms of GDP, defence spending or any other economic, social or development parameter, the gap between the two is just too wide to bridge (and getting wider by the day). In military terms, both conventional and non-conventional, we neither have the capability nor the intention to match China, force for force,” Mehta told an elite audience at the India Habitat Centre.

Earlier IAF chief Major, who retired May 31, had said that China was a bigger challenge for India as little was known about its capability.

“What I meant was while it is easy to gauge the intentions of other countries, it is slightly difficult with China because it is a closed society. Moreover quantity does not matter but capability does. We need not be that overly concerned with China. We do not have to put them on such a high pedestal,” Major added.

Map Sikkim Bhutan Chumb: Chumbi Valley: Tri-state border disptute. China is negotiating with Bhuton to take most of Chumbi valley

The Chinese armed forces overrun the Indian armed forces in sheer numbers. While India has a 1.3 million strong army, China’s is around 2 million.

However, the Chinese air force and navy have been lagging behind in terms of quality platforms and vessels. However, China has increased its defence spending exorbitantly to achieve rapid modernisation of its two forces and lately has flexing muscles to spread its influence in the South Asian and Indian Ocean Regions.

The Chinese air force is at a nascent stage but the infrastructure that it is coming up with in north-eastern region is cause for concern, say Indian military experts.

Caught unawares, the Indian Air Force has also started work to revive its advanced landing grounds and upgrade its existing runways in the north-eastern states and Ladakh region bordering China.

India recently deployed its frontline fighter jets Sukhoi-30 MKI in Tezpur in Assam. Though a symbolic induction has been done, a squadron strength has not been completed yet, according to defence ministry sources.

The Chinese navy, which is currently termed as a ‘brown water’ navy with limited reach and endurance, does not operate a single aircraft carrier. The Indian Navy, which operates one aircraft carrier, is already constructing indigenous aircraft carrier and nuclear submarine, compelling China to increase the pace of its efforts to get an aircraft carrier soon. Sindh Today